HARARE, Jan. 18 (NewsDay Live) - Zimbabwe’s export sector is demonstrating robust momentum, marking a significant stride in the nation’s transition towards an export-led economy.
Rising earnings, record-breaking monthly performances and a sharply narrowing trade deficit all point to strengthening economic fundamentals and growing confidence within the country’s productive sectors.
Beyond the headline figures, the data reveals a gradual but critical structural shift in the export base. Increases in value-added goods, stronger service exports and broader market diversification indicate that deliberate policy efforts are gaining traction, moving the economy away from over-reliance on raw commodity sales.
While traditional exports such as minerals and tobacco remain dominant, the evolving export mix signals progress towards a more competitive and resilient foundation — one capable of anchoring sustainable long-term growth if current gains are maintained and expanded.
The numbers: A surge in performance
According to the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZimStat), cumulative export earnings for January–November 2025 reached US$8,57 billion, up 27% from US$6,74 billion recorded during the same period in 2024. This growth has contributed significantly to narrowing the national trade deficit, which fell by 69%, from US$2,1 billion in 2024 to US$644 million in 2025.
This improvement marks an important correction in external balances and signals a shift towards a more balanced trade position. October and November 2025 were particularly notable, with exports reaching US$1 billion in each month — a first for Zimbabwe. These outcomes placed the country among the stronger export performers within the SADC region.
If current trends persist, merchandise exports are expected to reach approximately US$9,12 billion by year-end, surpassing the national target of US$8,1 billion. At this level, exports would account for about 19% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 — a meaningful contribution, though still modest compared to export-led economies with deeper industrial bases.
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“The performance reflects the growing strength of Zimbabwe’s productive sectors, firming global demand for the country’s goods, and the deliberate shift towards value addition that the Second Republic continues to promote,” ZimTrade said.
ZimTrade’s role in export development has become increasingly visible through targeted market interventions and capacity-building initiatives aimed at improving competitiveness. These efforts are beginning to yield results, particularly in value-added exports, which grew by 29% from US$404 million between January and November 2024 to US$522 million over the same period in 2025.
“The shift from raw commodities to products with higher levels of processing has become an essential part of Zimbabwe’s growth narrative, supporting better earnings, job creation and long-term competitiveness,” the organisation noted.
“Additionally, this shift fosters product diversification, which is essential in a sustainable export-led economy, as it drives innovation and mitigates against global shocks, including price volatility.”
Yet, despite this progress, value-added exports still account for a relatively small share of total export earnings, underscoring the scale of industrialisation still required. Service exports — which tend to be less capital-intensive and more resilient — grew by 12% to US$485,6 million from US$434,1 million in 2024, offering another avenue for diversification.
Market diversification: New and traditional partners
Market concentration remains a critical consideration. The United Arab Emirates continued to dominate as Zimbabwe’s top export destination, with exports rising by 71,6% from US$2,46 billion in 2024 to US$4,16 billion in 2025, largely anchored by gold. While this has boosted earnings, heavy reliance on a single commodity and market exposes exports to price volatility and external shocks.
South Africa remains a key trading partner, accounting for 22,8% of total exports, while China ranked third at 16,9%.
“There is significant potential for growth through ongoing collaboration between both governments to enhance trade in key local commodities such as citrus and avocados,” the organisation said.
Within the SADC region, Mozambique and Zambia recorded export growth rates of 13% and 1,8%, respectively, reflecting some success in regional trade engagement.
ZimStat’s manager for balance of payments and finance statistics, Mable Chimhore, said the figures reflected a positive balance of payments position.
“While the surplus signals growing export capacity, it also highlights the need for Zimbabwe to enhance cereal self-sufficiency and reduce reliance on food imports,” Chimhore added.
Equity Axis said that while October and November delivered landmark billion-dollar export figures — propelled by robust gold, tobacco and nickel sales — the achievement was effectively neutralised by a matching surge in imports, particularly food grains and fuel.
“The episode highlights both the volatility of commodity-dependent trade and the persistent difficulty of translating mineral and agricultural windfalls into sustained external account improvement,” it said.
Meanwhile, ZimTrade and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Trade expanded efforts to open new markets in 2025, including Uganda, Indonesia, Kenya, Malawi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Spain, Ethiopia and the United Kingdom.
This outward push is strategically important. Diversifying markets reduces vulnerability to geopolitical risks, demand shocks and policy shifts in individual countries — a lesson reinforced by recent global economic disruptions.
Movers
Several sectors demonstrated the potential benefits of industrial capacity expansion. The building and construction materials sector recorded one of the strongest performances, with exports surging by 292% from US$24,5 million in 2024 to US$96,3 million in 2025. Key products included semi-finished iron or non-alloy steel products worth US$45 million, and iron and steel bars and rods valued at US$21 million. This growth reflects increased local steel production capacity and rising regional infrastructure demand.
Manufactured tobacco exports increased by 17,5% to US$109 million from US$93 million in the same period in 2024.
“This increase reflects ongoing investment in processing that continues to shift the industry towards higher-value products,” it said.
Exports of agricultural inputs and implements rose by 15% to US$39,9 million in November 2025 from US$34,7 million in 2024, while arts and crafts exports increased from US$10,5 million to US$13,1 million, highlighting opportunities in niche and non-traditional sectors.
Shakers
Not all sectors shared in the growth. Unmanufactured tobacco exports declined by 3,9% to US$1,12 billion from US$1,17 billion in 2024, though the sector still accounted for 13,1% of total exports. Processed food exports fell to US$88,8 million from US$99,4 million, while hides and skins exports declined to US$21,2 million from US$26,7 million.
Pharmaceutical exports dropped sharply by 28%, from US$5 million in January–November 2024 to US$3,6 million in 2025, underscoring persistent challenges in domestic manufacturing competitiveness and scale.
Overall, Zimbabwe’s export performance in 2025 reflects meaningful progress towards an export-led growth model, supported by policy alignment, market development and rising productive capacity.
Yet the data also highlights unresolved structural weaknesses — particularly limited industrial depth, commodity dependence and market concentration — that must be addressed if the gains are to be sustained and translated into broad-based economic transformation.
