ZIMBABWE has emerged among the top five borrowers from the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), underlining its growing reliance on the regional lender at a time when global credit assessors are warning of escalating debt vulnerabilities.
According to a recent report by the Japan Credit Rating Agency (JCR), Zimbabwe ranks alongside Nigeria, Egypt, Tunisia and Angola as Afreximbank’s largest clients.
But unlike its relatively stable peers, Zimbabwe stands out as a fragile economy weighed down by a mounting debt burden and limited access to alternative sources of capital.
Afreximbank itself has projected that Zimbabwe’s debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio could rise to 72% by 2026, up from an estimated 67% in 2025.
The debt-to-GDP ratio, a key measure of sustainability, compares a nation’s total debt against the value of its annual economic output.
Ratios below 60% are generally considered safer for developing economies, while higher levels raise concerns over repayment capacity.
“A breakdown of total loans by country shows that the top five countries (Nigeria, Egypt, Zimbabwe, Tunisia, and Angola) account for about 71%,” JCR said in its latest report on Afreximbank.
“With sovereign (excluding central banks) and non-sovereign loans accounting for about 23% and 77%, respectively, main beneficiaries of the bank’s facilities are non-sovereign entities in regions with high risks.”
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Afreximbank’s total assets stood at US$35,2 billion at the end of 2024.
Analysts say the sustainability of Zimbabwe’s debt levels is far more concerning than the headline figures suggest.
“Whether a 72% ratio is alarming depends on the country’s economic resilience and financial systems,” head of strategy at Trade Winds Tapiwa Sibanda said.
“For advanced economies such as the United States or Japan, higher ratios are sustainable because they borrow in their own currencies and enjoy stronger investor confidence.
“For a country such as Zimbabwe, however, similar debt levels can trigger significant financing challenges, including higher borrowing costs, restricted access to credit, or even default pressures.”
Despite Afreximbank’s forecast that Zimbabwe would take on US$300 million in new debt this year, rising to US$600 million by 2026, Treasury data shows the government already exceeded these projections.
By March 31, 2025, new borrowings of US$640 million in the first quarter alone had pushed total public debt to US$21,5 billion.
JCR noted that about 80% of Afreximbank’s loans were secured by the end of 2024.
“In addition, like other MDBs (multilateral development banks), the bank has a track record of enjoying preferential repayment of its debts as a preferred creditor,” the ratings agency said.
However, it warned that ongoing debt restructuring in some countries could complicate matters.
“The debt restructuring frameworks (Common Framework) implemented by the G20 and the Paris Club do not require MDBs to participate in debt restructuring, but in cases where the economic adjustment of debtor countries does not proceed smoothly, there is a possibility of unexpected credit costs arising,” the agency said.
“However, considering that the outstanding loan balances to such countries are relatively limited, that the capital base has been strengthened based on solid performance and capital increases to date, and those measures to mitigate capital risks, such as CARPROOF, have been implemented, JCR holds that any significant deterioration in the financial base can be avoided.”
These warnings align with findings from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which in a February 2025 review acknowledged progress but flagged persistent weaknesses in Zimbabwe’s debt reporting.
While central government and central bank liabilities are captured, debts owed by local authorities, state-owned firms, and obligations such as Special Drawing Rights allocations and pension arrears remain excluded, obscuring the full debt picture.
“The current Debt Management and Financial Analysis System (DMFAS) is outdated (last revised in 2021) and needs to be upgraded to the latest version (DMFAS 7), which will handle a broader range of debt instruments (including account payables) and interface with other systems for efficient data exchange,” the IMF said.
It added that while the Public Debt Management Office has detailed internal procedures, it must expand its reporting framework to meet the needs of a wider user base.
