ZIMBABWE’S exporters are in trouble. Last week on Friday, the Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries (CZI) said manufactured exports plunged to US$90,7 million during the first half, down from US$119,9 million a year ago.
This is not a small drop. It signals tepid growth and shrinking opportunities. It means reduced capacity for companies to create jobs and weaker tax inflows into the economy.
In other words, this is a triple blow for a country desperate for recovery.
Yet amid this grim picture lies opportunity. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) presents a chance for Zimbabwe to expand trade and increase its gross domestic product (GDP). But a stumbling block is emerging.
This time it is not sanctions, or an opposition activist selling out millions for pieces of silver. It is bureaucratic inertia — and it is worrying.
While officials are busy crunching numbers and seeing shadows in a force too huge to stop, other African economies are already tapping into AfCFTA.
This is why early moves are critical. The domestic economy is battered — even though authorities insist it is firing on all cylinders. Consumer spending is weak, and firms are shutting down, retrenching, or divesting.
Yes, some new businesses are opening, but government’s own statistics - showing a rise of informal businesses to a shocking 76% — tip the scales against Zimbabwe.
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The formal economy, which is the backbone of national growth, is ebbing. Bold steps into AfCFTA and other Pan-African blocs such as Comesa are no longer optional. They are urgent.
Despite repeated commitments, the government has stalled on the most basic step: Gazetting tariffs and rules of origin needed for firms to trade under AfCFTA. AfCFTA will not wait for Zimbabwe. No one will sacrifice Africa’s 1,3 billion people for the comfort of 16 million.
This is why calls are growing, including from institutions such as the Trade Law Centre, that Harare must expedite the process. Zimbabwean exporters are locked out of a US$3,4 trillion market of 1,3 billion consumers. Bureaucratic inaction is costing the country entry into the world’s largest emerging trade bloc.
AfCFTA is designed to eliminate tariffs on 90% of goods, dismantle non-tariff barriers, and build a seamless continental market. According to the UN Economic Commission for Africa, it could raise intra-African trade by between 15% and 25% — equal to between US$50 billion and US$70 billion by 2040. This is the scale of what Zimbabwe risks losing.
Even government has acknowledged the opportunities and the threats. In 2020, then Industry and Commerce minister Sekai Nzenza warned manufacturers that AfCFTA would “open up immense opportunities” but also expose them to tougher competition from African peers producing cheaper, higher quality goods.
That warning has proved accurate. According to the Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce, local factories are operating at just 52% of capacity, hobbled by low demand, forex distortions, and high costs.
AfCFTA represents Zimbabwe’s best chance at building economic independence, strengthening supply chains, and reducing overdependence on global markets. For Zimbabwe, with its wealth of minerals, fertile land, and skilled labour, this could be a lifeline. But time is not on our side.
Delaying gazetting rules and tariffs means Zimbabwe is losing the first-mover advantage. Other nations are positioning themselves to host foreign corporations eager to use AfCFTA markets as springboards.
Investors will not wait for slow movers. Once supply chains and production hubs are established elsewhere, it will be hard for Zimbabwe to catch up.
AfCFTA is here to stay, with or without countries such as Zimbabwe. This is a US$3,4 trillion opportunity that cannot be left on the table. Please, smell the coffee.
