ZIMBABWE could be sitting on potential oil resources worth about US$90 billion, according to preliminary estimates indicating about 1,38 billion barrels of oil and condensate (gross mean, unrisked), the Zimbabwe Independent has established.
The valuation is based on multiplying the estimated resource in the Cabora Bassa Basin by the prevailing Brent crude benchmark price of US$65,50 per barrel.
While these remain prospective resources, still requiring more drilling, seismic work, and testing before they can be classified as reserves, the estimates provide a glimpse of the immense wealth that could lie beneath Zimbabwe’s soil.
If proven and developed commercially, the Cabora Bassa Basin could transform the country’s economic fortunes through billions in export earnings, new investment inflows, and fiscal revenues.
This potential underpins the exploration drive by Invictus Energy Limited (Invictus), the Australian-listed firm holding exploration rights in the basin.
“The resources are currently a mix of maturities, including contingent (discovered resources) and prospective resources (undiscovered resources which need to be proven through drilling),” Invictus managing director Scott Macmillan told the Independent.
“The resource estimates for Cabora Bassa will be refined as we gather required data from future drilling, testing and seismic campaigns to delineate resources and then converted to reserves classification (commercial resources) once commercial sales agreements, licensing and a development plan is approved.”
He noted that the Mukuyu Gas Field, which spans over 200km², could yield significant volumes once additional appraisal drilling and testing is completed.
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Current estimates suggest the Eastern Margin prospects alone may hold 2,9 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of gas and 184 million barrels of condensate, including the Musuma prospect, which is expected to contain 1,2 Tcf of gas and 73 million barrels of condensate.
Macmillan also highlighted that the basin margin play, in the southern part of the licence area, contains conventional oil targets with an estimated prospective resource of 1,2 billion barrels across five high-potential prospects.
“We aim to test this play in an upcoming exploration drilling campaign to prove it up,” he said.
In December 2023, Invictus confirmed a gas discovery at its second drill site in the Cabora Bassa project in Muzarabani district, northeast of Zimbabwe.
With the basin’s oil potential now estimated in the billions of barrels, investor confidence is rising — evidenced by Qatari investment group Al Mansour Holdings' recent landmark US$500 million funding commitment to the firm.
“Development of Cabora Bassa will require significant capital over multiple phases, and this US$500 million provides cornerstone funding for our forward work programme to bring the project into the first phase of commercial production,” Macmillan said.
“Release of funding is structured around reaching key project milestones, including future exploration and appraisal results, proving up the reserves base, and securing off-take agreements.
“The funding will be released in stages as we progress through these milestones towards development.”
He emphasised that beyond capital, the partnership with Al Mansour brought in a strategic investor with technical expertise, financial strength, and geopolitical influence to help attract further financing, off-take partners, and strategic collaborations.
“Invictus remains an independent company, with our flagship Cabora Bassa Project our priority. Al Mansour Oil & Gas (AMOG) is a separate, new incorporated joint venture company in which Invictus has a carried 10% equity stake,” Macmillan said.
“AMOG will build its own team and project portfolio, allowing us to explore regional opportunities without diverting focus of resources from Cabora Bassa.”
Following these developments, Invictus’ market capitalisation rose by US$174,2 million, pushing its total listed valuation to US$229,6 million by the end of last week.
