FINANCIAL services firm IH Securities has projected a nearly 20% revenue increase for Padenga Holdings Limited in the financial year ending December 31, 2025, underpinned by surging gold prices and continued strength in mining operations.
Padenga recorded a 43% rise in group revenue to US$222,95 million in the 2024 financial year, with its mining division accounting for 86% of total earnings.
The remaining 14% came from its crocodile farming business.
Growth in the mining segment was driven by a 12% increase in gold production at Eureka Mine to 1,811 kilogrammes (kg) and a 29% rise in output at Pickstone Mine to 827 kg compared to 2023. Both mines are operated by Dallaglio Investments (Private) Limited, which Padenga fully acquired in the first quarter of the year.
Both mines operate under Dallaglio Investments (Private) Limited, which Padenga fully acquired in the first quarter of this year.
The rally in gold prices — up more than 40% year-to-date — has further strengthened the group’s growth outlook.
IH Securities noted that Padenga is now focused on significantly reducing borrowings and funding growth through internal resources, leveraging the elevated gold spot prices.
The group plans to ramp up capital expenditure to US$19,18 million in 2025, with US$14 million earmarked for improvements at Pickstone Mine.
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“Forward looking, the group has announced that it is now significantly reducing borrowings and will take advantage of the high average gold spot prices to fund growth using internal resources. In the financial year 2025 (FY25), the group plans to increase capital expenditure, with a substantial portion allocated to Dallaglio,” IH Securities said in a financial outlook of Padenga.
“The group’s investment in expansion in FY25 is US$19,18 million and US$14 million will be spent on improvements at Pickstone Mine.
However, Dallaglio’s production is expected to remain flat in FY25 compared to FY24, as the ongoing capital expenditure projects at Pickstone Mine are expected to impact production from FY26.”
IH Securities said additionally, its view was that Dallaglio would see improved feed grades when they reached virgin ground in FY26, further improving output.
“Nevertheless, the FY25 average spot price for gold is expected to be greater than FY24, providing further momentum for Dallaglio’s upward revenue trajectory,” IH Securities added.
“Therefore, we project group revenue for FY25 to amount to US$266,15 million.”
In the firm’s 2025 capex budget, Padenga set aside US$28,52 million for Dallaglio, a 73% increase from 2024.
However, the financial services firm expects Padenga’s agribusiness to continue experiencing depressed demand for skins during the year, leading to lower sales volumes.
Revenue for the crocodile business for the 2024 financial year at US$30,43 million was an increase of 2% from the comparative prior period.
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) are anticipated to grow to US$92,93 million this year.
“Additionally, we forecast the EBITDA margin growing to 34,9% in FY25 from 32,2% in FY24. The increase in EBITDA margin follows a higher consensus average gold price forecast for FY25,” IH Securities said.
It also anticipated reduced power shortages and costs, as Dallaglio currently had two solar power plant projects in the pipeline.
“Our mines continued to make significant contributions to the Zimbabwean economy, generating US$193 million in foreign currency in 2024,” Padenga said in its recent 2024 annual report.
Over US$15 million was paid to the Zimbabwean government in the form of taxes, while 76% of its procurement spend in 2024 was directed toward local businesses.
