Zimbabwe’s mining sector became the nation’s leading source of bad debts in 2024, with non-performing loans (NPLs) surging to 27,87% after a sharp downturn in global commodity markets, according to the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe’s (RBZ) annual financial stability report.
The figure underscores mining’s acute vulnerability to external shocks and reflects a significant shift in credit risk dynamics, experts say.
The RBZ report links the 2024 crisis directly to a “decline in global commodity prices of lithium and platinum”, highlighting the deep “macro-financial linkages between global and domestic developments and the financial sector”.
Mining NPLs far outstripped those of the manufacturing sector, estimated at 17,74%, and individuals and households, estimated at 16,50%.
However, recent data from the Minerals Marketing Corporation of Zimbabwe (MMCZ) suggests a more complex and shifting landscape for 2025, with some mineral segments recovering, while others remain under pressure.
While the volume and value of PGM concentrate sales fell by 57% and 58% respectively for the nine months to September 2025, this was offset by a massive surge in high-value matte exports.
“To offset this, 27 806 metric tonnes (mt) of PGM matte was sold as at close of September 2025 for US$1,05 billion, accounting for a 50% surge in earnings from the US$702 million recorded prior year comparable period,” MMCZ general manager Nomusa Moyo reported.
Experts say this indicates a strategic shift towards more beneficiated exports.
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The picture for lithium, however, remains challenging, corroborating the RBZ’s earlier concerns.
The distress in mining emerges against the backdrop of a domestic banking sector that has otherwise maintained relative stability.
The overall NPL ratio for the sector was contained at 3,37%, which the RBZ noted was “below the international threshold of 5%”, crediting “robust risk management systems at banking institutions”.
In response to the complex environment, the RBZ said banks are “reconfiguring their business models”, a move that is likely being tested by the volatile but potentially recovering commodity cycle.
The mixed data for 2025 suggests that while the mining sector’s NPLs were elevated last year, the evolving dynamics of export products and prices will be critical in determining its financial stability this year.
