FINANCIAL services firm Inter Horizon Securities (IH) has predicted the gold price will close 2026 at over US$4 000 per ounce, a surge expected to boost Zimbabwe's economy.
Market analysts project significant growth for Zimbabwe’s gold sector this year, with output forecast to rise to 43,39 tonnes from 38,45 tonnes in 2024.
This rise is attributed to higher global gold prices, which have surged by over 40% in one year, incentivising miners to increase deliveries.
The increase has also been buoyed by numerous government incentives, particularly for artisanal and small scale miners.
These include allowing them to retain 100% of their foreign exchange earnings and paying a 5% fee for every 500 grammes delivered to Fidelity Gold Refinery (FGR).
“The gold spot price exceeded US$4 000/oz in early October on the back of perennial geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a government shutdown in the United States as the US dollar continues to lose value,” IH stated in its third quarter equities strategy report.
“The price of gold is expected to close at an average of US$3 400/oz in 2025 and over US$4 000/oz in 2026 which would bode well for Zimbabwe, as this could lead to a higher sectoral contribution to GDP from the current 14,5%.”
IH noted the mining sector was expected to grow by 2,9% this year.
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This growth is largely driven by bullish gold prices but is being weighed down by a weak platinum group of metals (PGM) sector.
“Forward looking, the expectation is that prices for PGMs and base metals are expected to remain depressed whilst gold prices are likely to remain in favourable territory,” IH said.
The firm said as of the third quarter, gold deliveries to FGR were up 37% to 32,98 tonnes.
“As of September, the value of gold exported is up 98,7% vs the prior comparable period to US$3,2 billion,” it noted.
“We are of the view that listed companies that primarily produce gold will likely benefit from the global gold run, while simultaneously, the Reserve Bank will continue to improve its import cover,” IH added.
“Volatility remains due to the commodity nature of the yellow back, which may cause swings in reserve value.”
