REGARDING the country’s civil service, there are several critical areas that have largely been ignored. These include workforce demographics such as the age and gender dynamics of the current cohort of government workers.
The distribution of skills across the different levels of government (central, provincial, municipal, parastatals, etc.), workforce retention and vacancy rates across these levels also tend to be overlooked, even though they have critical ramifications for the capacity of the civil service and its ability to deliver public goods and services. It is, therefore, vital for local policymakers to endeavour to collate this type of data.
Such data is important because it is likely to reveal hidden opportunities and challenges within the civil service.
In order to obtain this workforce data, it will be essential to extract it from the various human resources departments responsible for government workers across the different levels of government.
Once available, this data should assist in interpreting the state of the civil service as a whole, as well as that of individual or isolated departments within government, where necessary.
Do authorities know the current age profile of the civil service? Can they predict whether an ageing and retirement crisis is likely to emerge within government departments?
Do they have a plan or strategy to facilitate generational transformation among government workers, in an effort to avert such a crisis?
Are there isolated departments within government that have workforce issues requiring urgent attention?
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Having this type of data and understanding how these dynamics have changed over time, will be essential in interpreting the current state and evolution of Zimbabwe’s civil service.
Taking notes from South Africa
Fortunately for Zimbabwe, South Africa has managed to collect this type of data from parts of its civil service. South Africa now has sufficient information to establish that it is currently experiencing an ageing crisis among government workers.
Zimbabwe can derive value from South Africa’s analyses because its own civil service is typically designed in a similar manner.
Thus, there is an opportunity to “free-ride” on South Africa’s data. However, after free-riding, it will eventually become necessary to develop locally-accurate metrics that are distinctly Zimbabwean.
The discussion below describes the state of South Africa’s civil service in relation to the critical data points mentioned above, age of civil servants, skills distribution within government, employee retention, recruitment levels and related indicators.
In South Africa, the overall police force grew by only 1,29% over the 15-year period from 2009 to 2023, despite the country’s population expanding by more than 20% during the same period.
This immediately signals a challenge. To underscore the gravity of the situation, the 1,29% growth figure reflects all job roles within the police force, including police officers, administrative employees, cleaners, and management staff.
In essence, this tepid growth does not even reflect the growth of actual police officers, who are responsible for investigations and arrests.
Total employment in South Africa’s police force increased from 193 000 to only 195 000 between 2009 and 2023. However, when disaggregated data is analysed, it reveals that top management within the police force, comprising generals, lieutenant generals, major generals, and brigadiers, grew by a substantial 19,54%.
While it may not be prudent to jump to conclusions, this imbalance in growth appears problematic at first glance. It could be indicative of a police service increasingly inclined towards patronage, rewarding employees, who are agreeable to existing management and senior politicians.
At the very least, the evolution of South Africa’s police force into a top-heavy organisation may point to complacency within the institution’s human resources (HR) function.
This suggests that HR departments within the police may be failing to prioritise the development of a streamlined and effective police service.
With respect to the age profile of total staff within South Africa’s police service, there has been a sharp decline in the number of young employees.
Staff under the age of 30 more than halved, from 58 578 to just 27 817 between 2009 and 2023. The number of employees aged 31 to 40 also declined significantly over the same period. In contrast, personnel aged 41 to 50 increased from about 59 000 to 78 000.
More strikingly, the number of workers aged 51 to 65 surged by 225%, rising from approximately 14 000 to around 46 000 over the same period.
Taken together, these figures show that South Africa’s police force is ageing and failing to recruit and train sufficient numbers of young professionals.
These trends are even more pronounced among actual police officers responsible for investigations and arrests. The number of police officers under the age of 30 fell by 66% between 2009 and 2021.
In contrast, middle-aged officers increased, while older officers experienced a dramatic rise. In 2009, only about 7 700 police officers were over the age of 50. By 2023, this figure had increased by 300%, reaching approximately 29 000, or 20% of the total number of police officers.
Meanwhile, the proportion of police officers under 30 declined from around 33% in 2009 to less than 17% by 2023. Overall, the number of police officers per 100 000 citizens fell from 290 in 2012 to just 220 by 2024.
The ageing of South Africa’s police force is most pronounced in senior management. While it is common for senior positions to be occupied by more experienced and older individuals, the extent of ageing in South Africa’s case is particularly dramatic.
In 2009, about 60% of senior managers in the police force were aged 50 or below. By 2023, this proportion had fallen to just 20%. A striking 80% of senior management is now aged between 51 and 65.
These demographics are concerning, given that South Africa has a predominantly young population alongside persistently high crime rates. Many crimes are committed by young people, and since a significant portion of police work involves patrolling and responding to crime and social emergencies, the ageing of the police force does not bode well.
Questions arise as to whether older personnel possess the physical endurance required for effective policing. Policymakers must assess this reality and determine appropriate responses. Furthermore, older leadership may struggle to introduce innovative strategies at the same pace as younger personnel.
South Africa exhibits similar ageing trends within its ministry of Health.
According to various studies, ideal nursing complements within medical facilities should be balanced as follows:
l Young nurses under 30 years (20–30%);
l Mid-career nurses aged 30–50 years (40–50%); and
l Senior and near-retirement nurses aged 51–65 years (20–30%).
However, as with the police, South Africa’s nursing workforce is ageing well beyond these norms. Between 2009 and 2023, the number of nurses aged over 50 more than doubled. Their share rose from about 28% of the workforce in 2009 to roughly 37% by 2023. Nurses aged 41 to 50 declined over the same period.
The ministry of Health is making efforts to recruit young nurses, but progress remains slow. In 2009, nurses under 30 constituted just 10% of the workforce. By 2023, this had increased modestly to 15%.
Another challenge is that the number of nursing assistants has not grown in tandem with registered nurses, implying an increasing workload burden on nurses if this trend continues.
In primary and secondary education, public school teachers in South Africa are also ageing. In some provinces, the proportion of teachers aged over 50 rose from just 11% in 2009 to a staggering 32,% by 2023.
Concurrently, teachers in their 30s and 40s declined from nearly 40% to about 33,5%. Teachers aged 30 or younger fell from 21% to just 14% over the same period.
South Africa’s overall teacher-to-student ratio in public schools remains relatively favourable at around 1:30.
However, this could deteriorate by 2030, when an estimated 1,2 million additional students are expected to enter the public school system. Maintaining the current ratio would require hiring approximately 25 000 new teachers.
Most teachers currently fall within the 45-60 age bracket and have spent long periods in public service. Their experience places them at the upper end of salary scales.
For example, data shows that a 28-year-old teacher costs the government around US$20 000 (R334 000) per year, while a 63-year-old teacher costs about US$30 000 (R510 000). The predominance of older teachers, therefore, places a heavy burden on education expenditure.
At present, over 75% of South Africa’s public school budget is spent on worker compensation. This is unsustainable, as it leaves limited room for investment in infrastructure, technology, and other inputs necessary for improved educational outcomes.
Some experts argue that a gradual transition towards a younger teaching workforce could reduce average salary costs by up to 15%. However, it remains unclear whether enough young teachers are being trained to replace those approaching retirement. If not, serious challenges may emerge within the public education sector.
Conclusion
Zimbabwean policymakers need to endeavour to obtain comprehensive workforce data relating to the country’s civil servants. Possession of such data would improve understanding of existing challenges while identifying potential opportunities and threats.
As demonstrated by South Africa’s experience, this data can reveal critical truths that have largely been overlooked, truths that could significantly influence the stability and effectiveness of the civil service.
As a starting point, policymakers can commission relevant government administrators or external consultants to collate human resources data from HR officers and managers across all levels of government.
Once available, this data can be leveraged to gain an upper hand in understanding the dynamics of Zimbabwe’s civil service.
- Tutani is a political economy analyst. —[email protected].
