GOLD, often revered as the quintessential “yellow metal”, is currently experiencing one of its most remarkable performance years on record.
Over the past six months alone, gold prices have surged by more than 60%, delivering substantial gains not only for gold itself but also for related sectors such as gold equities, mining companies and government revenues.
This extraordinary rally underscores gold’s enduring role as a safe haven investment, especially in times of global uncertainty, economic downturns and financial crises.
Its unique properties — malleability, portability, aesthetic appeal, near indestructibility, universal acceptance, liquidity, and scarcity — solidify its status as a premier store of value.
In this compelling analysis, based on official Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZimStat) data, I explore Zimbabwe’s year-to-date gold production figures, the key drivers behind the ongoing global gold price surge, and the potential risks that could influence the future outlook of gold prices.
Furthermore, I highlight how the robust gold rally is significantly contributing to a moderation of Zimbabwe’s trade deficit through increased merchandise exports.
This is a pivotal moment for investors and stakeholders alike, recognising the strategic importance of gold as both a resilient asset and a catalyst for economic stability in these uncertain times.
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Latest ZimStat trade data show that Zimbabwe's merchandise exports reached US$878,2 million in August 2025, a slight increase of 0,2% from US$876,1 million in July 2025.
A detailed analysis of the data further emphasises Zimbabwe’s reliance on mineral commodities, which accounted for an impressive 84,2% of total exports in August 2025.
Cumulatively, merchandise valued at US$5,6 billion was exported during the January-August 2025 period, representing a 21,7% increase from the US$4,6 billion achieved in the same period in 2024.
ZimStat trade data also show merchandise imports for August 2025 at US$871,1 million, down 1,7% from US$886,2 million recorded in the previous month.
Overall, Zimbabwe spent about US$6,7 billion on imports from January to August, which is 6,3% higher than the US$6,3 billion spent during the same period in 2024.
However, the country recorded a trade surplus (exports exceeding imports) of US$7,02 million in August 2025, a first since July 2019. Cumulatively, Zimbabwe achieved a trade deficit of approximately US$1,1 billion in the January-August period, which is 35,3% lower than the US$1,7 billion deficit recorded during the same period in 2024.
The slowdown of the trade deficit and attainment of a surplus in August 2025 are supported by the spectacular performance of mineral commodities like gold, which has singlehandedly generated US$2,7 billion in this period compared to only US$1,3 billion in 2024.
Gold export performance
Traditionally, gold constitutes Zimbabwe’s foremost export. Official trade records indicate that in August 2025, the nation exported gold valued at US$462,7 million, representing a 2,2% increase from US$452,6 million in July 2025.
Cumulatively, gold exports from January to August 2025 totalled US$2,7 billion, reflecting a substantial 107,7% increase compared to the US$1,3 billion recorded during the same timeframe in 2024.
The total gold export value of US$2,7 billion for 2025 accounts for an impressive 48,2% of the total export receipts (US$5,6 billion) for that period.
Gold bull run drivers
The strong performance in gold exports can be linked to rising global gold prices. For example, in July 2025, the spot price of gold went up by 0,3%, ending at about US$3 299 per ounce.
In August 2025, the average monthly gold price kept its upward trend, climbing 4% to close at US$3 363 per ounce, marking the seventh consecutive month of record-high average prices.
By September 2025, international gold prices experienced a significant surge, reaching record highs with a monthly increase of nearly US$400 per ounce.
The monthly average price surpassed US$3 800 per ounce, ending at around US$3 863, marking one of the most favourable months for gold in over a decade and contributing to a 47% year-to-date (YTD) increase, its strongest annual performance since 1979.
Overall, gold prices gained 17,1% in 3Q25, outpacing the 2Q25 growth rate of 5%. This upward trend continues a multi-year bullish cycle, during which gold prices have roughly doubled.
Gold has always been a barometer of uncertainty, and in 2025, investors faced many uncertainties. The yellow metal has maintained its position as a top safe-haven asset, delivering a 60% return from January to September 2025.
Its rally has been strengthened by increased market volatility caused by rapid geopolitical shifts, trade policy uncertainties, persistent inflation, a weakening US dollar, market expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts, and decreased USD-denominated debt issuance by foreign governments.
Central banks have continued their strong buying activity, providing steady support for gold prices. According to the World Gold Council's 2Q25 Trends Report, central banks bought more gold over the past four years than they did in the previous 20 years combined.
This trend reflects several key global concerns.
First, there are increasing worries about currency debasement, driven by ongoing fiscal deficits and monetary expansion that reduce the value of fiat currencies.
Second, geopolitical fragmentation is intensifying, as rising economic nationalism and the formation of regional blocs create pressure for more independent reserve strategies.
Third, countries are turning to inflation hedging to protect their economies from potential price instability while monetary policy remains accommodative.
Fourth, de-dollarisation efforts are accelerating, as nations seek to diversify away from traditional currency reserves amid shifts in global financial power.
Finally, there is a growing recognition of the need for politically neutral reserve assets to safeguard financial stability in an uncertain world.
Emerging market central banks boosted their gold reserves by an average of 15% since 2023. This growth sped up after the Russian central bank's assets were frozen in 2022, raising serious concerns about the security of traditional forex reserves.
Gold, on the other hand, is regarded as politically neutral, and central banks have responded by diversifying into the yellow metal at an unprecedented rate.
This surge is likely driven by several factors. First, greater accessibility has opened up the market, the expansion of fractional ownership platforms has democratised gold investment, allowing smaller investors to participate.
Second, there has been a growing entry of younger demographics, with more millennial and Gen Z investors seeking alternatives to traditional financial assets.
Third, digital gold adoption has accelerated through the rise of tokenised gold and blockchain-based ownership models, offering new ways to gain exposure to precious metals.
Finally, inflation protection measures have encouraged investment in gold, as persistent consumer price increases continue to erode purchasing power across major economies.
Several potential catalysts could drive gold to even higher levels in 2025. Further monetary easing, with additional interest rate cuts beyond current expectations, could lower the opportunity cost of holding gold.
Rising geopolitical tensions also support gold, as new conflicts or worsening existing situations could trigger increased safe-haven flows.
Furthermore, financial market instability could boost gold prices because stock market declines or issues in the debt market may lead investors to turn to gold as a safe haven.
Additionally, rising inflation, the return of widespread price increases above many central banks’ targets, would make gold more attractive as an inflation hedge.
Zimbabwe gold production
Gold deliveries to Fidelity Gold Refinery (FGR) slightly declined by 0,4% to 4,19 tonnes at the end of August 2025, down from 4,21 tonnes in July 2025.
Artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) accounted for the majority, 77,6% (3,25 tonnes), while large-scale miners contributed 22,4% (0,94 tonnes).
Despite the slight decrease in August 2025, year-on-year gold deliveries to FGR increased by 22,6%. From January to August 2025, FGR received a total of 28,5 tonnes of gold, representing a 37% increase from the 20,8 tonnes received during the same period in 2024.
During this eight-month span, the ASM sector supplied 73,7% of the total, compared to 26,3% from large-scale producers.
Gold sub-sector outlook
I believe the risks to local gold production mainly lean toward the upside, and I am confident that gold deliveries to FGR in 2025 will meet the government’s annual goal of 40 tonnes.
Factors supporting higher local gold output include rising global prices, export incentives and improved local gold pricing.
Nonetheless, there are endogenous downside risks, including severe electricity shortages, regulatory hurdles such as export surrender requirements, payment delays, and operational disruptions caused by the rainy season in Q4 2025.
From an external perspective, several factors could limit further gains in global gold prices.
These include stronger-than-expected macroeconomic data in developed countries and higher real interest rates, which would raise the opportunity cost of holding gold and potentially decrease its relative appeal.
Additionally, global gold prices might be pushed down by profit-taking, as investors may lock in gains after significant price increases, causing short-term selling pressure.
Supply response could also play a role, since sustained higher prices might eventually encourage increased production and recycling, helping to rebalance the market.
Sibanda is an economist employed at Maxiquantus Capital Investments and Advisory. His perspectives are independent and do not necessarily reflect the views of his employer. — [email protected].
