OVER the past few decades, there have been fears of a potential world war. The war in Ukraine almost triggered the Third World War, thanks to caution, it can still be called the Russia-Ukraine war. Wars are bad, but there are moments when they become unavoidable — not out of necessity — but impulsion by dominant countries which fear losing power.
In the case of Ukraine, it was unavoidable that other countries, mainly from Europe, would step in to support anything against Russia, but they had to be cautious in doing so. And that averted a global calamity.
In the past weeks, this column has covered how the Ukraine war is gradually paving way to a multipolar world which is threatening to unseat the hegemonic dominance of the United States (US) and its European allies. In most of the coverage and analysis of this subject so far, there is an assumption that the gradual transfer of power from a unipolar system to a multipolar one will be smooth and without pain. There is lack of attention on how this will manifest, inasmuch as this is long overdue. Loss of power is hardly a smooth process as it is often marked by political and military palpitations which can be disastrous globally.
It should be noted that the current unipolar system is based on a single country dominance and that country is the US. The US foreign policy is based on a single global hegemonic power. The aim of US foreign policy is a US-dominated world, in which the US writes the global trade and financial rules, controls advanced technologies, maintains military supremacy, and dominates all potential competitors.
Most former foreigner policy protagonists have always promoted the idea of US supremacy.
In addition, Robert Blackwill a former US ambassador was once quoted saying that “since its founding, the United States has consistently pursued a grand strategy focused on acquiring and maintaining preeminent power over various rivals, first on the North American continent, then in the Western hemisphere, and finally globally.” He further noted that “preserving US primacy in the global system ought to remain the central objective of US grand strategy in the 21st century”.
This is how this world has been run since the mid-1940s until today and that placed the US in a position of authority over the rest of the world. It is for the same reason that any country that pursues policies that do not conform to US policies, is either reprimanded, sanctioned or militarily attacked. For the past eight decades, the world was directly and indirectly run under US policies or ideas because it had the power and the means to do so. What we call the global moral system is an expression and idolisation of US policies and not necessarily what each country should be pursuing in advancing its people’s interests.
Several factors before and during the war in Ukraine have exposed this US dominance which was comfortably entrenched within global governance institutions which pretended to exude neutrality, moral authority and an apolitical stance on global issues such as democracy and human rights. While prior events served to reveal the imbalanced influence of US foreign policy on global political and economic affairs, the war in Ukraine unmasked the hidden and heinous colours of its implications.
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Based on the US foreign policies as explained earlier, it is incontrovertible that it would be amenable to change or pressure without resistance or putting up a fight. Both scenarios are a recipe for a global war.
From the onset, the US foreign policies do not treat America as an equal member of the global community, but rather presumes some form of superiority over everyone else. The skewed global attention over other global crises was more than telling.
The source of this superiority is becoming more and more questionable if not weakened when we look at the global dashboard in terms what the US can offer to the world to earn the global hegemonic tag. The US has just 4% of the world population and no longer has the economic, financial, military and technological capacities to dominate the rest of the world. The US only accounts for 15% of the global economy in terms of purchases. Its only hold to power now lies in its currency which accounts for up to 60% of global trade which is conducted in US dollars. Discussions on the alternative currency are already unsettling the US hegemony which is perhaps its last hold on power.
Russia, China and India and their allies now control these levers of power in terms of population size, the economy and military mighty as well as swaying global trade and possibilities of an alternative currency.
As the world has witnessed, the US will not take the loss of power lying on its laurels. It will fight and resists and sometimes fight against the rest just to retain power. And this may result in another world war.
- Tapiwa Gomo is a development consultant based in Pretoria, South Africa. He writes here in his personal capacity.
