NINETEEN years after British Airways (BA) abandoned Harare and 15 years after Zimbabwe’s state-run Air Zimbabwe (AirZim) operated its last direct flight to London, it has taken Airbus to remind the region’s airlines that the route still brims with opportunity.
One of Africa’s most significant aviation corridors remains without a non-stop flight.
For Airbus — the European aircraft manufacturer — the anomaly is too glaring for the aviation industry to ignore.
In a new study, Airbus said the corridor remains the most significant unserved city pair in Sub-Saharan Africa.
That argument carries weight.
The market is driven by a Zimbabwean diaspora estimated at 170 000 people in the United Kingdom, strong tourism demand and passenger volumes that have continued to rise despite the absence of direct services.
The report, titled Exploring the Horizons: A Study of Unserved Air Routes to, from and within Sub-Saharan Africa, comes as AirZim attempts to re-enter the London market under a lease arrangement with Spanish carrier Plus Ultra Líneas Aéreas.
But Airbus’ report goes beyond identifying a route gap. It reveals the scale of an opportunity that airlines have been pursuing indirectly through hubs in Addis Ababa, Dubai, Doha and other gateways while avoiding the risk of operating directly.
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“For the third iteration of this unserved routes research, the Harare–London corridor remains the most significant unserved city pair for Sub-Saharan Africa,” Airbus said.
“Historically, the Harare-London route was a cornerstone of the Zimbabwean air transport industry, formerly served non-stop by BA and AirZim until 2007 and 2012, respectively.”
The report exposes one of the most remarkable contradictions in African aviation.
A route connecting Zimbabwe’s capital to one of the world’s largest aviation hubs — and a gateway to an economic bloc with a combined GDP exceeding US$20 trillion — continues to generate substantial passenger traffic every year.
Yet travellers remain dependent on connecting flights through third countries.
The route’s strength lies in migration patterns that emerged during Zimbabwe’s economic and political crisis in the 2000s.
As hyperinflation devastated incomes and businesses collapsed, hundreds of thousands of Zimbabweans left the country in search of opportunities abroad. Britain became one of the principal destinations.
Today, that diaspora has evolved into a major economic force.
Official estimates indicate Zimbabweans living abroad remit close to US$2 billion annually back home. The United Kingdom remains one of the largest sources of those remittances.
Airbus estimates the UK-based Zimbabwean diaspora at approximately 170 000 people.
That figure alone suggests a substantial visiting-friends-and-relatives (VFR) market, one of the most resilient segments in global aviation. Travel demand is driven by family ties rather than purely economic considerations, according to experts.
“In the first evaluation (2022 to 2023), the city pair was identified as Africa’s premier unserved route, fuelled by a UK-based diaspora of 170 000 Zimbabweans and robust tourism demand for attractions like Victoria Falls,” Airbus said.
“Despite the lack of a non-stop air service, traffic surged to 20% above pre-pandemic levels by 2023, with Emirates and Qatar Airways capturing half the market.”
The implications are significant.
If Airbus’ diaspora estimates are accurate, the Zimbabwean community in Britain alone represents enough demand to support hundreds of passengers every day throughout the year.
When tourism, business travel and transit passengers are added, the commercial potential becomes even more compelling.
Yet the route remains stubbornly unserved.
Instead, airlines have developed sophisticated ways of capturing the market through connecting hubs.
Airbus noted that competitive dynamics have shifted dramatically over the past few years.
“The second study (2023 to 2024) highlighted a pivotal shift in market dominance following Ethiopian Airlines’ launch of a non-stop flight between Addis Ababa and London Gatwick,” the report said.
“By leveraging its Addis Ababa hub, ET successfully captured an important part of the high-volume VFR and leisure segments, overtaking Emirates as the primary carrier for this city pair.”
That strategy has paid off.
Airbus said the Harare–London market recorded a 12% year-on-year increase in traffic and a compound annual growth rate of 5,5% since 2019.
The latest analysis suggests the route has now entered a more mature phase.
“This year’s analysis confirms that the Harare-London market has entered a phase of maturity. Demand remains present in the market even if total passenger numbers on the city pair have not further increased.”
Airbus said Addis Ababa had consolidated its position as the dominant transit hub for travellers between Harare and London.
“Addis Ababa has further solidified its position as the premier transit hub for the Harare-London city pair, fuelled by a dramatic 59% year-on-year growth in traffic to and from London Gatwick (LGW) specifically.”
The report found that Gatwick is increasingly becoming the airport of choice for Zimbabwean travellers.
“While London Heathrow volumes slightly softened over the last 12 months, the preference for Gatwick among the Zimbabwean diaspora, VFR and leisure segments has intensified.”
The aircraft manufacturer said changing traffic flows through Kigali and adjustments to RwandAir’s Harare operations also contributed to the evolving competitive landscape. The broader message, however, is that travellers continue to demonstrate a willingness to endure lengthy connections because no direct alternative exists.
“Together, these developments suggest that even in leisure-heavy segments, travellers are mindful of routing and total travel time when making their choices.”
For AirZim, the report offers both encouragement and a warning. The airline says it is ready to return to a route that once gave it both brand visibility and substantial revenue.
Earlier this year, Mutapa Investment Fund chief executive officer John Mangudya said the national carrier would resume direct flights by mid-2026. The fund controls AirZim.
That target has already slipped. AirZim is now targeting July 1 for the launch under an ACMI arrangement in which aircraft, crew, maintenance and insurance will be supplied by the Spanish airline Plus Ultra. The arrangement reflects the reality facing the national carrier.
AirZim no longer possesses the wide-body fleet that once operated long-haul services to Europe. The Boeing 767 aircraft that linked Harare and London during the airline’s better years are disappearing from service. Airbus believes the market can support a modern replacement.
“To successfully launch such non-stop flights, a medium-sized wide-body aircraft, such as the A330, appears best suited for the task,” the report said.
But it cautioned that demand alone will not guarantee success.
“While a non-stop service represents the natural evolution for this route, especially during the periods of peak demand, its long-term viability will depend on achieving and sustaining a consistent frequency.”
The challenge, Airbus noted, is balancing fares and service quality in a price-sensitive market.
“Given the corridor’s price-sensitive nature, the challenge for any operator lies in balancing the right product with a competitive fare structure.”
While London dominates headlines, Airbus identified another route that is rapidly emerging as a strategic opportunity for Zimbabwe: Harare–Dubai. The city pair entered Airbus’ top 10 list of unserved sub-Saharan African markets for the first time this year.
“The Harare–Dubai corridor is an unserved city pair that newly enters the top 10 of unserved markets to or from sub-Saharan Africa this year,” Airbus said.
Traffic growth has been remarkable.
“Traffic on this city pair has demonstrated an impressive performance, growing at an average rate of approximately 11% per annum since 2019 despite the disruptions caused by the pandemic.”
The report said passenger volumes increased by 34% over the past year. Approximately 57 000 passengers travelled between Harare and Dubai during the evaluation period despite the absence of a direct service. That translates into roughly 80 passengers travelling each way every day.
Emirates remains the dominant carrier. The airline operates a Boeing 777-300ER between Dubai and Harare via Lusaka, taking advantage of fifth-freedom rights between Zambia and Zimbabwe. Airbus said Emirates carries significant volumes even on the Lusaka–Harare segment. Yet perhaps the most intriguing finding concerns the quality of traffic travelling on the route.
“An analysis of the traffic composition reveals that the share of premium traffic on the Harare–Dubai route stands at a remarkably high 16%, which sits significantly above the 6% average typical for the sub-Saharan region.”
That premium segment makes the route especially attractive.
“Given this lucrative passenger profile, the ongoing lack of a non-stop flight between Dubai and Harare is particularly striking.”
The report also found that Zimbabwe itself drives much of the market.
“Sabre point-of-sale data shows that about 50% of all tickets and up to 60% all premium tickets on the city pair are purchased directly within Zimbabwe.”
This suggests demand is being generated not only by the diaspora but also by Zimbabwe-based business travellers, traders and high-income passengers. Airbus believes developments already underway could reshape the market.
Etihad Airways recently announced plans to serve Harare from Abu Dhabi, creating a new non-stop link between Zimbabwe and the United Arab Emirates. At the same time, Emirates is introducing Airbus A350-900 aircraft that could provide greater flexibility in scheduling.
“Implementing this non-stop service would make distinct commercial sense during the short, but intense period of peak demand that recurs in the Harare–Dubai corridor every year between December and January.”
For Zimbabwe, the Airbus report offers a rare endorsement from one of the world’s leading aviation manufacturers. Its conclusion is that demand exists, passengers exist and the economics increasingly favour direct services.
The question now is whether any airline is prepared to seize an opportunity that has remained visible for nearly two decades.
