Force has long been one of Zimbabwe’s most stubborn reflexes. From the bloodshed that has stained election cycles to the early post-independence atrocities in Matabeleland and Midlands provinces, when an estimated 20 000 civilians were killed during the Gukurahundi campaign, coercion has too often stood in for consent.
This week’s unusually candid submissions to the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe by the Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce and the CEO Africa Roundtable must be read against that broader backdrop.
Corporate Zimbabwe is sending a message that policymakers would be unwise to dismiss: confidence cannot be commanded. Both organisations warned that the country’s fragile macroeconomic stability cannot be sustained through “coercive” mechanisms.
The ZNCC observed that “the observed stability is occurring under highly-controlled monetary and financial conditions” and cautioned that “a premature or administratively enforced shift toward mono currency” risks triggering capital flight. Then came the line that cut through the fog: “De-dollarisation should be earned through sustained stability, not legislated through compulsion”. That is the crux. Markets do not respond to instruction, they respond to credibility.
CEOART was even more forthright. On foreign currency surrender requirements, it warned that if export proceeds are not honoured immediately, the framework morphs into a coercive “liquidity extraction tool” and risks degenerating into “involuntary state financing”.
These are not the grievances of activists or opposition politicians. They are the considered assessments of chief executives, custodians of capital expenditure, payrolls and long-term investment plans.
The issue is not whether reform is necessary. Reform is unavoidable. The question is whether administrative pressure can substitute for structural integrity. Business leaders argue that Zimbabwe’s present stability remains “externally-anchored and confidence-sensitive”, underpinned by currency substitution and US dollar anchoring within a de facto multi-currency regime. In plain terms, the foundation is conditional. Industry survey data reinforces the caution. Around 76% of businesses believe conditions are not yet adequate for full de-dollarisation, while 84% prefer the US dollar or a multi-currency framework.
These are not fringe opinions. They reflect the prevailing sentiment in the productive sector, the very constituency expected to drive growth, exports and employment. Meanwhile, high interest rates, tight liquidity and regulatory overhangs continue to weigh heavily. Firms have scaled down. Some have shuttered. Investment decisions have been deferred. Confidence, once fractured, is painfully expensive to restore. Zimbabwe’s own economic history attests to that truth. Markets cannot be bullied into belief. Statutes cannot manufacture trust. Administrative tightening cannot compensate for inadequate reserves, limited convertibility or inconsistent policy signals.
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Zimbabwe has an opportunity, politically and economically, to reset its trajectory. But durable reform requires validation by the market, not enforcement by decree. Stability rooted in credibility endures. Stability imposed by pressure eventually cracks. The choice before policymakers is not between reform and retreat. It is between compulsion and confidence.
