Zimbabwe’s business community is on the edge as tensions mount between South Africa and the United States, amid fears that potential sanctions on Africa’s most industrialised nation could trigger a domino effect across the region and inflict heavy damage on Zimbabwe’s fragile economy.
The anxiety comes as a Bill has been tabled in Washington seeking to reassess the US relationship with South Africa in light of Pretoria’s foreign policy stance — particularly its increasingly close ties with China and Russia.
If enacted, the Bill could lead to penalties against senior South African government and ruling African National Congress officials, while re-calibrating trade, diplomatic and security engagements between the two countries.
For Zimbabwe, the stakes could hardly be higher. South Africa is not only its biggest trading partner but also the main gateway for its imports, exports and regional business linkages.
“It will affect all Sadc countries — Zimbabwe in particular,” Trust Chikohora, former president of both the Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce (ZNCC) and the Comesa Business Council, told businessdigest.
He said a possible fallout from sanctions on South Africa could be “profound and painful” for Zimbabwe.
“Sanctions limit a country’s development route and agenda, and if that happens to South Africa its economic growth will be impacted,” Chikohora said.
“So if that happens to South Africa, there will be an impact on the South African economy. Economic growth, consumption and even job opportunities will be constrained. There will be less investment in their country, less growth and more economic difficulty, more unemployment there.
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“South Africa is the biggest economy in Sadc. It will affect all Sadc countries, Zimbabwe in particular, because South Africa is Zimbabwe’s biggest trading partner. Most of our imports come through South Africa and from South Africa, even for raw materials that we use.”
While trade and investment flows between the US and South Africa remain significant — bilateral trade exceeded US$20 billion in 2023 — political relations have grown increasingly strained over the past decade.
Washington has repeatedly criticised Pretoria’s stance on Russia, particularly its refusal to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, its naval exercises with the Russian navy, and its growing alignment with Brics partners. The Bill also references South Africa’s deepening economic cooperation with China, a rival to US global influence.
US President Donald Trump has accused South Africa of “anti-white bigotry” in its land reform policies and has announced a refugee programme for Afrikaners, moves that fuelled mistrust between the two governments.
The new Bill — which requires a review of all areas of US-South African engagement — could be the most serious threat yet to relations.
For Zimbabwe, sanctions could directly disrupt supply chains already vulnerable.
“Raw materials that we use in our industries — be it tourism, mining and various critical sectors — come through and from South Africa,” Chikohora noted.
“So that will affect our own production and productivity here in Zimbabwe because those suppliers may be constrained.”
The South African transport network — from Durban’s port to Beitbridge Border Post — is the lifeline for Zimbabwe. Even modest trade restrictions or currency volatility in South Africa could choke the flow of goods and spike costs.
Beyond trade, the people to people economic link between Zimbabwe and South Africa is immense. Millions of Zimbabweans live and work in South Africa, sending money home each month to support families and invest in local businesses.
“Zimbabwe has a huge population in the diaspora and the largest population is actually in South Africa,” another economist said.
“They get employment in South Africa, so if unemployment rises in South Africa, it means less of our people can work there and that will affect diaspora remittances into Zimbabwe,” Chikohora warned.
Remittances — which reached around US$2 billion last year — are one of Zimbabwe’s top foreign currency earners, helping to stabilise the economy amid chronic foreign exchange shortages. A downturn in South Africa’s economy would quickly reverberate across Zimbabwe’s banking and retail sectors.
Sanctions could also tighten the squeeze on Zimbabwe’s already stretched power supply.
“We import some electricity from South Africa that may be constrained again, militating against production in Zimbabwe,” Chikohora said. “We export a lot to South Africa as well. We do not want sanctions against South Africa just as much as we don’t want sanctions against Zimbabwe.”
South Africa’s Eskom has long been a crucial supplier to Zimbabwe’s grid. Any financial or operational pressure on the utility could lead to longer power cuts north of the Limpopo.
Chikohora believes Zimbabwe should be proactive in showing solidarity with South Africa, just as Pretoria has supported Harare in its own long running battle against Western sanctions.
“As a country we should work with them to fight against those sanctions as they have also stood with us in our fight against sanctions. So as Sadc continues to stand with Zimbabwe against sanctions — the same should be extended to our brothers in South Africa,” he said.
For now, the US Bill is still making its way through congressional processes, and its final shape is uncertain. But for Zimbabwe’s business leaders, the warning signs are clear — the health of South Africa’s economy is inextricably tied to their own fortunes.
