Zim inflation—A case of a dog chasing its tail

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Massive printing of money by the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe drove the economy into hyperinflation between 2007 and 2008.

Zimbabwe Independent

AS Zimbabwe slides into hyperinflation, there has been mistrust between government and business. Forget the much-hyped Tripartite Negotiating Forum which was revived early this year—prices in Zimbabwe are now rising weekly, even daily in some cases.

The manufacturing sector, which is operating sub-optimally due to antiquated equipment, high production costs and erratic power supplies, is in limbo and cannot match regional peers.

During a mock survey carried out by Econometer Global Capital, we observed that most businesses are now in survival mode and have adopted the cost recovery pricing model in this inflationary environment.

For instance, a 900-watt generator for home use which would cost US$100 was last priced at ZW$2 500 at a time the parallel market exchange rate was hovering around 1:19. That has been the case in supermarkets where prices indexed in Zimbabwe dollars are now twice as expensive as those in neighbouring South Africa.
This points to an unstable and rising cost structure, frequent repricing of goods and a subsequent decline in the quality of earnings for business.

President Emmerson Mnangagwa recently met local retailers over price hikes but the blame-game prevailed. Manufacturers blamed retailers and vice versa.
All this points to structural deficiencies in the economy.

Local industry cannot export due to some of the factors alluded to above and hence their pricing model has been designed to ensure that they do not trade out of business. Yesteryear memories of consumers becoming bargain hunters, a development that resulted in retailers failing to restock, remain fresh. Unlike in the past, Zimbabwe’s inflation is not being driven by excessive money supply (notes in circulation) but an unstable currency, government’s fiscal indiscipline and a general lack of confidence.

While doing so, inflation has been heading northwards, tracking foreign exchange movements and price of fuel.Resultantly, buying power has diminished. With low exports and high production costs, this will be a vicious cycle for the economy.

Officially, month-on-month inflation has slowed down but our analysis shows otherwise. A kilogramme of commercial grade beef which used to cost US$5 is costing ZW$120 for the same quantity.

In the past, the price of a dozen eggs would track US dollar movements but now low buying power has made this benchmark inaccurate. So in the final analysis, we can conclude that while business is in survival mode, it has also taken two extra steps to ensure that it continues to restock and retain the going concern status. Authorities and business will not have a convergence point unless the macro-economic environment is stabilised.

Doing so requires Zimbabwe to go beyond the “open for business” mantra and overhaul the business climate for both domestic and foreign investors. — Econometer Global Capital.

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