The National Development Strategy 1 (NDS1) — a five-year economic blueprint launched in 2021 to shape Zimbabwe’s growth trajectory — failed to deliver on key promises to create jobs and expand exports, a leading business body said this week.
In its submissions to Finance minister Mthuli Ncube ahead of the 2026 national budget, the Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce (ZNCC) said the blueprint fell short on employment creation and value-addition targets, despite being hailed by authorities as a success.
Government is currently working on NDS2, which will replace NDS1 in 2026, amid mixed reviews that the outgoing plan helped the economy navigate multiple headwinds — most of them a result of decades of policy missteps.
However, in what appears to be the first comprehensive private sector review of NDS1 made public, ZNCC said the plan’s outcomes were far weaker than official narratives suggested.
At its launch, government projected NDS1 would create 700 000 formal jobs during its lifespan and increase the share of value-added and manufactured exports to 20% of total merchandise exports by 2025.
But by late 2024, Zimbabwe’s manufacturing sector was operating at an average 51% of installed capacity, while manufactured exports accounted for less than 7,5% of total goods exported - a sharp contrast to official targets.
“NDS1 struggled to move the economy up the value chain,” the ZNCC said.
“Manufacturing capacity utilisation stagnated at an average of 51%, and manufactured exports accounted for less than 7,5% of total merchandise exports. Soya, fertiliser, and leather value chains remain uncompetitive and import-dependent.
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Meanwhile, Zimbabwe risks entrenching itself as a raw commodity exporter of lithium and other minerals.”
The chamber warned failure to strengthen domestic industries had dire consequences for job-creation and economic resilience.
“Job creation and value-addition targets under NDS1 were missed,” the ZNCC stated.
“Agro-processing remains underdeveloped, driving food insecurity and a US$388 million fertiliser import bill in 2023. Without beneficiation, Zimbabwe will capture little value from mineral wealth, despite growing global demand.”
Four years into implementation, NDS1 has failed to ignite large-scale industrial revival or formal employment growth. Despite optimism at its inception, the projected 700 000 formal jobs have not materialised.
Most new livelihoods have emerged in the informal sector, where productivity and incomes remain low.
The chamber attributed this stagnation to persistent structural challenges, including high input costs, erratic electricity supply, exchange rate volatility, and limited access to affordable credit.
Targeted value chains such as soya, fertiliser, and leather have remained trapped in import dependence, while domestic producers continue to struggle to penetrate regional and global markets.
NDS1 had envisioned agro-processing as the cornerstone of rural industrialisation and value-addition, but these ambitions remain far from being realised.
