TAPIWA MASHAKADA THE war in Ukraine is a proxy war between Nato and Russia. The war has created a huge humanitarian catastrophe caused by Russian shelling and bombardments of cities in the east, south and west of Ukraine and the use of civilians as a human shields by Kiev.
Over four million refugees have fled into Poland, another Nato ally.
Nato is providing lethal weaponry to Ukraine, which includes defence missiles, tanks, anti-missile batteries, drones, warships, javelins antitank missiles plus billions of cash provided by the United States.
America has dispatched over 10 000 special forces to Poland, a Nato member and has vowed to defend every inch of Nato territory.
This explains why Ukraine has mounted such an unexpected resistance against the colossal Russian army, which has suffered huge casualties and lost equipment.
The Russian offensive got bogged down as Russia failed to storm Kiev, the capital city, and Kharkiv, the second largest city. Russia has intensified the bombardment of the port city of Mariupol on the Black Sea.
Russia has declared the end of the first phase of its military operation in the eastern region of Ukraine, the Donbas region. But the end of the war is nigh. The US President Joe Biden visited Brussels to buttress sanctions against Russia.
He visited Poland to show his unequivocal support to Eastern Europe and Euroasia, which has now become a critical geo-political axis for Nato.
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Negotiations are going ahead in Turkey and Belarus. Russian demands:
- Disarmament of Ukraine;
- De-Nazification of Ukraine;
- Neutrality;
- Recognition of Donbas region in the east; and
- Recognition of Crimea as part of Russia;
- Ukraine demands:
- Withdrawal of Russian troops;
- Guaranteed neutrality;
- War crimes and reparations; and
- Sovereign legitimacy over its eastern regions, including Donbas.
For us at the Maji-Marefu Institute, this war is going to be protracted and might draw other countries on the side of Russia if Nato imposes a no-fly zone.
China is going to be the kingmaker because so far it has played its cards well, always careful about its geo-politics with Taiwan and Hong Kong. The issue of gas supply from Russia to Europe will also determine the dynamics of this conflict.
When the world is unipolar there is no peace and security. The US violates international law willy-nilly. Such breakdown of international law makes the world a jungle.
The United Nations (UN) is a useless organisation because it has failed to be the umpire of international law. The UN panders to the will of America.
That is why the condemnation of Russian aggression is mitigated, not because it is right, but because America and its Nato allies have no moral authority to do so. They are approaching the UN with dirty hands!
- Dr Mashakada is the founding director and senior research fellow at the Harare-based Maji-Marefu Institute of International Relations and Security Studies. He is a renowned economist, politician, businessman and academic. — [email protected].
