THE Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) projects a downward trend of inflation rate this year and expects it to average 1,5% per month.
A continued tight monetary policy stance, strong fiscal stance, strong co-ordination between fiscal and monetary authorities on liquidity management, continued use of a dual currency system, and normal-to-above-normal rainfall patterns to dampen food prices are the underpinning assumptions.
A granular analysis, however, shows that in making its inflation projections, the central bank through the 2023 Monetary Policy Statement has failed to price the impacts of the upcoming general elections and its associated risks.
These risks, for instance, include the pending Private Voluntary Organisations (PVOs) Bill which is awaiting presidential assent after sailing through both chambers of the National Assembly.
The Bill has a high potential to constrain the civic space which could affect non-governmental organisation (NGO) remittances to Zimbabwe.
In 2022 alone, forex inflows from NGOs were up 16,6% to constitute about 10% of US$11,6 billion received abroad for the entire year.
The foreign exchange markets risk losing a significant amount of these remittances if the Bill gets signed and this could exert severe Zimbabwe dollar exchange rate, social, and humanitarian implications.
Also, the central bank is projecting inflation to keep plunging through 2023.
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However, a glance at statistics shows that government borrowing is mounting unsustainably.
The latest RBZ report shows that in 2022, Treasury Bills issuance expanded by 394% from $40,24 billion in January 2022 to $198,81 billion in December 2022.
This is clear evidence of mounting spending pressures which could get worse in an election year (2023).
As such, it is difficult to expect a decline in Zimdollar inflation when the local currency had already lost about 20% of its value year-to-date in the parallel markets.
While we admit that US$ transactions are now dominating the economy, a shift to blended inflation figures (combined Zimdollar and US$ inflation) for policy guidance in 2023 will likely misrepresent the cost of living being borne by Zimbabweans, especially those largely earning in local currency.
It is highly conceivable that the central bank has more control over Zimdollar inflation than the US$ component.
US dollar prices are largely dictated by variables largely outside the Bank’s control.
Cognisant of this, the central bank’s policies should remain guided by what it has control over — the Zimdollar inflation figures.
It is, therefore, our view that inflation will remain elevated in the outlook. - Zimcodd
Financial capacity, literacy key in women taking up leadership, decision-making positions
FROM January 26 to February 1, 2023, Women’s Academy for Leadership and Political Excellence (Walpe) in partnership with Women and Law in Southern Africa (WLSA) with support from the Netherlands Embassy conducted Transformative Feminist Leadership (TFL) trainings in Magunje, Hurungwe district, with 50 aspiring women leaders.
The training managed to influence an increase in the number and quality of women aspiring to take up leadership positions and also participate in and influence electoral processes as both candidates and voters.
Various responses gathered from the women showed their willingness and desire to take up leadership positions if given the opportunity and adequate resources to campaign for their desired positions.
Some of the topics covered in the training were: Leadership; Understanding How the Government works, Volunteerism; Power; Social Accountability; Grooming and Etiquette, Climate Change; Feminism; Negotiation and Consensus Building and Building a Political Campaign, among others.
During the trainings, the women highlighted that their community leadership was very patriarchal with very few women leaders at both lower and higher level positions.
They stated that this made it difficult for women’s issues to be raised and taken further for implementation as they do not have any representation.
The women also noted that one of the major inhibiting factors to women’s participation in leadership was the lack of financial resources and literacy.
Boosting the financial capacities of women aspiring leaders will allow them to participate meaningfully in leadership and decision-making processes.
After the trainings, participants felt strengthened to challenge the status quo and were now ready to start taking up various leadership positions in their communities.
On February 6, 2023, the Walpe team in partnership with WLSA with support from the embassy of Netherlands, travelled to Goromonzi, where they conducted the Movement Building in Transformative Feminist Leadership training with 50 aspiring women leaders.
With participants aged between 18 and 60, the trainings equipped the aspiring women leaders with leadership skills, knowledge and capacity to be effective leaders from grassroots to national level.
Additionally, the training also increased the number of women who wanted to take up leadership positions and ensured fair representation of women in political leadership.
The trainings were conducted seminar style, with group work aimed at enhancing their understanding of some of the topics.
The aspiring women leaders also did summary presentations on the topics they understood best and prepared impromptu campaign speeches under the mastering public speaking topic.
They were highly participative and showed interest in local leadership and climate change, a phenomenon that they have noticed to be affecting their community. - Walpe
Why is it that nothing is off limits to big business interests?
A QUESTIONABLE yet common refrain still manages to prevail amongst capitalist nation governments and corporate circles: Best business practices, including what’s best for the consumers, are best decided by business decision-makers.
Clearly, that is not true.
In Canada and the United States, corporate neglect resulted in numerous COVID-19 illnesses/deaths of vulnerable elderly people in for-profit long-term care homes.
There was Boeing’s decision to keep its ill-fated 737 Max planes flying, regardless of major indicators, including employee warnings, that the jets should be grounded and serious software glitches corrected.
And there was DuPont, et cetera.
I find it depressing to think about how some people (ie, chief executive officers and/or top decision-making staff) can do such terrible things to so many other people (ie, consumers and/or “collateral damage”), perhaps while lulling themselves with: “It’s just business, nothing personal.”
Those doubting the powerful persuasion of huge business interests need to consider how high-level elected governing officials can become crippled by implicit or explicit corporate threats to transfer or eliminate jobs and capital investment, thus economic stability — a crippling that is made even worse by a blaring news media that’s permitted to be naturally critical of incumbent governments.
In the case of private-sector long-term care-home neglect resulting in too many needless deaths during the COVID-19 crisis, the fact is that neglect was around long before the crisis, although the actual extent was made horrifically clear only after the pandemic really hit.
A most morbid example of the consequences of such neglect was the CHSLD Herron, also known as Résidence Herron long-term care home in Quebec about 11 months ago, where 47 residents perished.
The neglect — which eventually resulted in abandonment by overwhelmed and fearful staff — had become so extreme that the Canadian armed forces got involved.
Maximising profits by risking the health or lives of product consumers will likely always be a significant part of the nature of the big business beast.
Therefore, families may still have reason to worry over their loved-ones being left vulnerable by measures taken by some long-term care-home businesses to maximise profits.
Western business mentality and, by extension, collective society, allowed the well-being of our oldest family members to be decided by corporate profit-margin measures.
And our governments mostly dared not intervene, perhaps because they feared being labelled as anti-business in our avidly capitalist culture.
I find astonishing that our society still allows the blatant commercialisation of our dear senior citizens, even after the care-home COVID-19 horrors.
Why is it that nothing is off limits to big business interests, even that which we all should consider sacred?
As socialist as it may sound, I believe that all long-term care homes should become State-owned and operated non-profit establishments. - Frank Sterle Jr
