When predicting NBA games, it isn’t easy to achieve enough accuracy to make a profit. However, the fast-paced and straightforward nature of basketball provides an opportunity to use effective strategies. In the following article, we’ll tell what data helps bettors make the correct basketball predictions.
First of all, the bettor should understand that different betting markets have different levels of sophistication. Some are more popular (betting with handicaps, totals, outright betting), others are less so.
Injuries and substitutions have a significant impact on developments in the NBA. Because basketball is very intense and has over 80 games in the season, sometimes teams’ lineups change drastically from match to match, directly affecting a team’s chances of winning or losing.
When making predictions in the NBA, you should not exclude the possibility that one of the teams may give up on the fight. Teams that have no realistic chance of making the playoffs are more likely to start losing more often. The situation happens because the lower a team’s position in the league, the more likely they will pick the most talented player in the draft.
What kind of data is needed to succeed in NBA predictions?
There are many different metrics that bettors can take advantage of and make an informed decision when placing basketball bets. Of course, one should analyse the statistics of the teams’ wins and losses, their level of preparation in the current season, and the results of head-to-head matches with specific opponents. This data is available to users on the bookmaker’s websites. For example, the Intertops bookmaker, a review of which can be found here, https://bookmaker-ratings.com/review/intertops-review/, such data is in the “Statistics” section.
Statistics of individual basketball players are also crucial because, in this sport, one player can affect the outcome of the match more than in others. Several statistics characterize the performance of the players and can be interesting to be analyzed by bettors. Although such primary data helps in making successful NBA predictions, at the same time, they are unlikely to benefit the betting market because bookmakers use more complex indicators. Including:
- Floor Impact Counter (FIC): Group all the statistics that characterize a player’s performance and combine them into a whole. It makes it easier to identify the best-performing basketball players.
- The 3PT% is the three-point shooting statistic. Athletes who shoot the ball into the basket from the three-point line sometimes determine the game’s outcome on their own. The most successful teams in the NBA have the highest 3PT%. It is essential to consider this figure when betting on totals. By analyzing the data in the context of three-point shots, you can identify the most decisive players or teams in the offence and the weakest in defence.
- The Turnover Percentage or TOV% metric is the percentage of the losses of the ball. The metric includes failed passes, fouls, steals, turnovers, opponent interceptions, and running out of time on team possession of the ball. However, we should note that the best players in the NBA have the highest TOV%. They have these percentages because players possess the ball more than anyone else. So, in this case, a high TOV% does not make these professionals bad players, but it does make them more critical to the team.
- The tempo factor is an indicator used in evaluating a team’s offensive and defensive effectiveness, and it measures possession of the ball.
Social media is a useful source of information for placing bets. You can significantly improve your own NBA predictions by subscribing to users who are pretty good at basketball’s statistical and analytical aspects.
An essential factor to consider when making NBA game predictions is the ratio of home games to away games. Playing on a home court is regarded as an advantage. The support of the fans encourages the home team to perform with maximum effort. Visitors away from home can feel unsure and play at a lower level. Long-distance travel can also harm the guests, causing fatigue in the athletes.
A large number of consecutive games without replacing players can also lead to fatigue and an increased risk of injury. The participation of basketball players in several straight games within a short time hurts their performance. Therefore, you can also influence the success of NBA predictions by tracking the teams’ performance schedules.