Dumisani Muleya

ZANU PF senior politburo member and chief negotiator in talks with the MDC movements, Justice minister Patrick Chinamasa (pictured right), says his party cannot afford to substitute President Robert Mugabe in the next crucial elections, as pressure mounts for the veteran ruler to quit in December.

In a cautionary move, Chinamasa, who was part of the Emmerson Mnangagwa-led faction which tried to stage a palace coup in Zanu PF before its 2004 congress, said Zanu PF could ill-afford to replace Mugabe now. He likened attempts to replace Mugabe to efforts to change a ship’s captain in the middle of a storm.

“First of all I would like to say the issue of the candidacy of President Mugabe is an internal matter —  it should not concern outsiders. But where we stand now the president is our candidate for future elections,” Chinamasa said.

“The president has indicated the next conference, in Bulawayo, would be a mini-congress where we will confirm him as candidate. It’s an internal matter but we will put our best foot forward and President Mugabe is our best foot. We can’t change the captain in the midst of a storm.”

Chinamasa’s remarks, which apparently reflect the position of the Mnangagwa faction, could help Mugabe in his bid to ride the storm during the potentially explosive Bulawayo conference which would be “just as good as (a) congress”. Those close to Mugabe, including Zanu PF insiders, say his real game plan is to die in office, not to retire.

Zanu PF infighting over the Mugabe candidacy is intensifying ahead of the party’s annual conference in Bulawayo from December 6-10. Although conference can endorse Mugabe as a candidate, pressure has been brought to bear on him to accept the possibility of being replaced, hence his admission the gathering would be more like a congress, although he wants a stronger mandate from it.

Mugabe was in 2007 forced to hold an extraordinary congress before the 2008 elections by senior party officials who wanted to replace him as candidate but he managed to cling on with help from the Mnangagwa faction which had burnt its fingers three years earlier. The camp led by the late retired army commander General Solomon Mujuru desperately wanted Mugabe to go.

Asked if it was not in the interest of Zanu PF to field a relatively younger and fresh candidate in the next elections, Chinamasa insisted: “We will not change the captain when the ship is under threat of being ship-wrecked.”

Chinamasa suggested it would be suicidal for Zanu PF to replace Mugabe when the party was facing the danger of running aground. Mugabe himself has said Zanu PF will disintegrate like other former liberation movements in the region if he goes. 

On why Zanu PF officials seemed afraid of leadership renewal, Chinamasa said: “The politburo is an open forum. Colleagues who want to raise the issue (of Mugabe’s succession) are free to do so. Why do they only raise it with you in the media? Debate is not suppressed in the politburo.”
Chinamasa said there was gradual leadership renewal at the politburo level of Zanu PF.

“The majority of members of the politburo are young people. They are people, for instance, who have nothing to do with Dare reChimurenga (Zanu PF’s War Council during the struggle for liberation). Some of them were not even connected with the liberation struggle. They may not be the kind of youths that you want but they are there. That’s leadership renewal,” he said.

“In the party we have opportunities to raise issues like succession and corruption but in the case of corruption you need evidence before you talk about it.”
Zanu PF politburo member Jonathan Moyo recently raised the issue of leadership renewal, elections and Mugabe’s candidacy in 2013 and corruption, among other things, in the state-controlled Sunday Mail, capturing the raging argument that Mugabe could not realistically be a candidate in 2013.

Zanu PF is currently divided on whether to endorse Mugabe as a candidate in the next elections or not. While some think Mugabe is the only viable candidate for the party, others say it would not be practical or reasonable, to field him, especially if the elections are held in 2013 when he is 89 and also ailing. Mugabe recently said he has no control over when the polls would be held as that would be determined by Global Political Agreement (GPA) processes.

A GPA roadmap is being worked out to provide signposts to the next elections.

Chinamasa said he stood by his opinion that elections are likely to be held next year and possibly in 2013.
“I’m not changing anything. Initially I said elections could be held next year or possibly in 2013. I believe this is still the situation that elections could be held next year. I mentioned 2013 as a possibility,” he said.

The Zanu PF politburo, which wanted elections this year when Mugabe is still able to campaign efficiently although it was divided on that, reacted angrily recently to Chinamasa’s remarks and basically telling him to shut up.

Chinamasa had initially said: “We need to start talking about elections next year or 2013, assuming that the (constitutional) referendum is held in September as we have been advised. It is my own opinion that it is not possible to hold elections this year.”

Recent WikiLeaks disclosures show most senior Zanu PF officials want Mugabe to go and this position had been there for the past decade having been initially spearheaded by the late Eddison Zvobgo and his allies who wanted to “form a party within a party” to remove their leader.

Due to internal strife and the state of the economy, Mugabe lost the first round of the 2008 elections to Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai of the MDC-T, before storming back through a campaign of violence and brutality.

(NB: the Independent will carry a full interview with Chinamasa next week.)

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