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DEMOCRATIC Republic of Congo President Joseph Kabila’s victory in the November 28 election is fragile and contested.
His swearing-in ceremony was on Tuesday. But main opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi, 79, was scheduled to also be sworn in as president “by the people” today at a mass rally at Martyrs’ stadium in the capital, Kinshasa.
People voted, votes were counted but we don’t know who is in control. DR Congo — two-thirds the size of Western Europe — is headed for a period of institutional sluggishness and isolation in the West.
An incumbent entourage that is likely to continue pillaging the country’s resources opposes an aged runner-up with a political ego larger than his capacity to propose a constructive political agenda.
Even before outside observers cast doubts on the veracity of the results, Tshisekedi cried foul, unilaterally declaring himself president. Tshisekedi is the charismatic leader of the Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS), a historically important political movement.
Kinshasa then braced itself for mass uprisings. But the doomsday scenario did not unfold.
DR Congo’s demonstrators do not want to be martyrs like those of the Arab world.
The fear of winding up in The Hague at the International Criminal Court (ICC) calmed tempers.
The opposition was fragmented during the electoral campaign and suffered from their inability to agree on a common opposition candidate. But there are now hints that the opposition may finally be trying to forge a united position.
Tshisekedi wields popular support, particularly in the two Kasai provinces and in Kinshasa.
He has more to win by peaceful action than by inciting violent street movements.
A group of peaceful demonstrators with bible in hand is more powerful in the Congolese context than mobs throwing stones.
His capacity to badger Kabila cannot be underestimated.
Pockets of the country could follow him, putting pressure on the central government’s capacity to levy taxes and control territory, blemishing Kinshasa’s reputation nationally and internationally.
Tshisekedi destabilised ex-dictator Mobutu Sese Seko in the early 1990s by organising peaceful Christian marches and general strikes, earning himself the nickname Moses. People saw him as a saviour.
Kasai, also under his impetus, refused Mobutu’s five million Zaire banknote, putting further pressure on the dictator.
This success helped overshadow a skeleton in his closet: He was an actor in the assassination of DR Congo’s first independence leader, Patrice Lumumba. According to Ludo De Witte’s book The Assassination of Lumumba, Tshikedi has not commented on the allegation. Tshisekedi is not going to bow down to Kabila or be shoehorned into a power-sharing arrangement. He can take advantage of Kabila’s vulnerability in Kinshasa.
Imagine President Barack Obama being persona non grata in Washington DC. That is Kabila’s situation in the city that is the seat of the country’s institutions.
The risk of an even worse investment climate also weakens Kabila.
The Dutch brewery Heineken, which keeps the beer flowing in DR Congo, or US mining company Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc, for example, could find themselves under pressure by shareholders sensitive to the problems of paying taxes to a government seen as illegitimate. — BBCOnine.
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