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By Konstantin von Eggert
ARE we witnessing a Russian Spring this winter? This is the question my US and European colleagues have been asking me over and over again in recent days. I am not certain that developments in Russia will mirror those in the Arab world but one thing is certain — what we witnessed on December 4 was a return of live politics to Russia; a politics that everyone thought was comatose.
For a second day running, in Moscow and Saint Petersburg, we have witnessed the kind of pro-democracy rallies that the cities had not seen since the rough and tumble of the early 1990s. And, although the outcome is far from clear, a few things are already coming into focus.
This election turned out to be a de-facto referendum on Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party and on his decade in power.
Even if we believe the official results to be without doubt — which they are definitely not — a very serious signal has been sent to the country’s ruling class.
December’s vote can be seen as a kind of “round zero” for Russia’s presidential elections, scheduled for March 2012.
Putin is widely expected to be elected to his third term in power, but the Duma election has a cast a shadow.
If, in spring, Putin goes into a kind of mock battle similar to those of most of the previous elections, he will lose even more credibility.
He could have gambled — opening the field to genuine competition and following a kind of Putin 2.0 strategy, a move his aides predict will happen eventually. However, if he does, he will have to opt for general liberalisation as opposed to cosmetic liberalisation, and be prepared to face a barrage of criticism.
Knowing the Russian leader, this is a very unlikely scenario. Putin, it seems, will either have to crack down hard on dissent or face growing dissatisfaction among the masses and an increasing disappointment with his ability to control the situation from within the ruling class.
There are a few other new developments too. This was the final election in which state-controlled TV played a decisive role. Internet penetration in Russia has already grown massively but, by 2016, when the next voting cycle starts, as much as 75% or 80% of voters will have online access.
Konstantin von Eggert is a commentator and radio host for Moscow’s Kommersant FM commercial station. — BBCOnline.
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